查看: 124|回复: 0

[标准] 双信封悖论-two envelopes paradox

[复制链接]

1676

主题

1696

帖子

3万

积分

版主

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
34384
QQ
发表于 2017-5-19 03:01:31 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式 | 百度 
shbc2008的评分为23--时间:2570-03-05 14:37:46,小灯泡不亮了的评分为99--时间:2573-09-25 22:57:16.joro的评分为78--时间:2526-12-20 02:08:46!唐伯猫的画的评分为24--时间:2649-09-24 21:46:16.newission的评分为19--时间:2695-04-15 18:54:16.丶杨蛮子的评分为53--时间:2021-04-10 03:48:26!

马上注册硬科学论坛吧。上传说明:若上传附件过大,请上传至网盘或者优酷等视频网站,给出链接方式。下载说明:如果资源大于2G,请安装【百度网盘】或【360云盘】后下载!

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有帐号?立即注册

x
输入的解释:
two envelopes paradox (mathematical problem)
声明:
A game show contestant is presented with two identical envelopes, each of which contains a check, but the amount of the check in one is twice as much as in the other. The contestant must then select one the two envelopes and open it. Upon doing so, the contestant is given the option of keeping it or exchanging it for the contents of the other envelope. A simple probabilistic argument suggests if the if the opened envelope contained an amount x, then the expected gain from swapping would be (1/2 × x/2) + (1/2 × 2x) - x = x/4, which is positive, so the participant should swap. But then he need not even open the envelope to know he should swap, and so might as well choose the other envelope at the outset. But that is absurd.
解决方案:
The probabilistic argument is fallacious. There is a 50% chance of increasing the amount and 50% chance of decreasing it by switching.
历史:
formulation date | 1953 (64 years ago)formulator | Maurice Kraitchikstatus | fallacyadditional people involved | Martin Gardner
类:
mathematical paradoxes | solved mathematics problems


回复
百度搜狗360奇虎

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表